Can Craps Be Beaten
Posted : admin On 4/6/2022In other words, the result of your last game has no Can Casino Craps Be Beaten bearing on the result of your next game. Online Can Casino Craps Be Beaten Slots games come in many varieties, each with different jackpots and different outcome possibilities. Odds of winning smaller prizes are much greater than the odds of winning the top prize.
- A player should understand that craps is a casino gambling game. That means it has a built-in house advantage that guarantees the online casino will win in the long run. This does not mean that the game cannot be beaten. In fact, craps is the second most favorable online casino game for the player.
- There have been studies done on baccarat and some say it can be beaten, but the systems are highly complex. Apparently craps can be manipulated if you are the thrower, but not holding my breath on that one. Most games follow an average probability with odds balanced in the casinos favour. Roulette pays at 35:1 which means.
Although I have tested a lot of systems, I don't need to test all of them to know they are all worthless. No system can ever pass the test of time. It is not unusual to win for a while with a system, but if you keep playing the odds will eventually catch up to you and you will fall behind.
For more information about the futility of betting systems, please see The Truth about Betting Systems.
A casino I played at had the 3,4,5 odds system where you were allowed 3x on the 4 and 10, 4x on the 5 and 9 and 5 x on the 6 and 8. I feel that with this 'system' of placing odds, you reduce the fluctuations (with respect to standard 5x odds on all numbers) in your bankroll, and change the distribution of net gain/loss per session, i.e. you would produce a sharper peak located slightly more to the loss side than with 5x odds. Is this so, and could you put some numbers to it?
That is known as 3-4-5X odds, and is now pretty common. The following table shows all the possible outcomes, for the pass and odds combined, with full odds.
Return Table with 3-4-5X Odds
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass line win | 1 | 0.222222 | 0.222222 |
| Pass line loss | -1 | 0.111111 | -0.111111 |
| Point of 4 or 10 & win | 7 | 0.055556 | 0.388889 |
| Point of 4 or 10 & lose | -4 | 0.111111 | -0.444444 |
| Point of 5 or 9 & win | 7 | 0.088889 | 0.622222 |
| Point of 5 or 9 & lose | -5 | 0.133333 | -0.666667 |
| Point of 6 or 8 & win | 7 | 0.126263 | 0.883838 |
| Point of 6 or 8 & lose | -6 | 0.151515 | -0.909091 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.014141 |
The standard deviation per pass line bet is 4.915632.
Unlike most gambling writers, I don't put much emphasis on betting strategies. Assuming the same game and bet, there is no one right or wrong strategy. They all behave differently in the short run, but in the long run you will give the house the same percentage of total money bet.
This is similar to a question I got last week. Yes, it is true that there are ten ways to roll a 6 or 8, and six ways to roll a 7. However, one must not look at the probabilities alone, but weight them against the payoffs. The place bet on the 6 and 8 pays 7 to 6 odds when fair odds would pay 6 to 5. By making six unit place bets on the 6 and 8, and taking the other down if one wins, the probability of winning 7 units is 62.5% and the probability of losing 12 units is 37.5%. If the player must cover both the 6 and 8, then the place bet is the way to go. This rate of return isn't bad but could be better. For the player who puts a priority on minimizing the overall house edge, the best strategy is to make combinations of pass, don't pass, come, and don't come bets, and always take the maximum allowable odds.
The better system is to bet on the don't pass only and take full odds. Yes, betting on both does increase you chances of winning on any one bet. However you are suffering a higher combined house edge by betting on both the pass and don't pass and it will cost you in the long run.
Yes, it was luck. It helped that you stuck to the low house edge bets. However, next time, make the line bets with odds only, and don't bet the field, especially if it pays 2 to 1 only on both the 2 and 12.
No combination of bets can give the player an advantage. In your example you would lose one unit for every 12 on the come out roll. You don't make up for it laying the odds. While you usually win laying the odds, you have to risk more. In the end, laying the odds has zero house edge.
As long as you are backing up your pass and come bets with full odds, it doesn't make any difference how many come bets you make. However, it does reduce the overall house edge to keep the odds on your come bets working on the come out roll.
You should never remove a don't pass bet after a point is made! Once a point is made of 6 or 8 the don't pass has equity of 9.09% of the bet amount, which you would be throwing away by taking the bet down. The equity of a don't pass bet on a point of 5 or 9 is 20%, and on a 4 or 10 is 33.33%.
Thanks for the compliment on my site. The best thing I can say about this system is that it composed of low house edge bets. Yes, a 12 will lose the pass bet and push the don’t pass on the come out roll, this is where the house edge is. By making the pass bet you are increasing the overall house edge. If you’re afraid losing you shouldn’t be playing at all. Never hedge your bets. So my advice is to stick to just the don’t pass and laying odds. Yes, you’ll lose some on the come out roll. However if you don’t lose on the come out roll the don’t pass bet will usually win.
I am a novice, just starting to play. My question concerns the 'Five Count Doey/Don’t' System. The way I understand the system:- Wait until the shooter establishes a point.
- Play both come/don’t come (same amount). Until you have a maximum of four numbers
- After the shooter has rolled five times without rolling a 7, take odds on all your numbers on the front side.
The rationale: Limit your exposure until you find a 'qualified' (five rolls without a 7) shooter. Only betting the odds so there is no 'house edge'! Can you compare this system with just playing pass/come and taking the odds?
As I stated in the other craps strategy question you are only mixing another house edge bet into the game by betting on both the pass and don’t pass, or come and don’t come. It is also not going to help to wait until a shooter hits five points. The probability of making a point is the same for me and you as it is for somebody who just threw 100 points in a row. In other words, the past does not matter. As I stated to the person who asked the other question (whom I think may also be you) don’t make opposite bets, just stick to either the do or don’t side and always back up your bets with the odds.
Unless bankroll preservation is very important to you then Kelly betting won’t help. I would just flat bet. Nice strategy to milk the comp system.
The American Mensa Guide to Casino Gambling has the following 'anything but seven' combination of craps bets that shows a net win on any number except 7. Here's how much MENSA advises to bet in the 'Anything but 7' system:- 5- place $5
- 6- place $6
- 8- place $6
- field- $5
- total= $22
They claim the house edge is 1.136%. How is that possible if every individual bet made has a higher house edge?
Good question. To confirm their math I made the following table, based on a field bet paying 3 to 1 on a 12. The lower right cell does shows an expected loss of 25 cents over $22 bet. So the house edge is indeed .25/22 = 1.136%.
Mensa Anything but Seven Combo
| Number | Probability | Field | Place 5 | Place 6 | Place 8 | Win | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.027778 | 10 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 10 | 0.277778 |
| 3 | 0.055556 | 5 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 5 | 0.277778 |
| 4 | 0.083333 | 5 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 5 | 0.416667 |
| 5 | 0.111111 | -5 | 7 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 2 | 0.222222 |
| 6 | 0.138889 | -5 | 0.000000 | 7 | 0.000000 | 2 | 0.277778 |
| 7 | 0.166667 | -5 | -5 | -6 | -6 | -22 | -3.666667 |
| 8 | 0.138889 | -5 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 7 | 2 | 0.277778 |
| 9 | 0.111111 | 5 | 0 | 0.000000 | 0 | 5 | 0.555556 |
| 10 | 0.083333 | 5 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 5 | 0.416667 |
| 11 | 0.055556 | 5 | 0 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 5 | 0.277778 |
| 12 | 0.027778 | 15 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 15 | 0.416667 |
| Total | 1 | -0.25 |
The reason the overall house edge appears to be less than the house edge of each individual bet is because the house edge on place bets is generally measured as expected player loss per bet resolved.
However, in this case the player is only keeping the place bets up for one roll. This significantly reduces the house edge on the place bets from 4.00% to 1.11% on the 5 and 9, and from 1.52% to 0.46% on the 6 and 8.
For you purists who think I am inconsistent in measuring the house edge on place bets as per bet resolved (or ignoring ties) then I invite you to visit my craps appendix 2 where all craps bets are measured per roll (including ties).
Craig from Los Angeles
No. I had to Google this to find out what this is. This appears to me to be an amusing urban legend about some young scientists who developed a winning craps system. The story is told at Quatloos. I would file this under other fictional stories that have become mistaken for fact, like Joshua’s missing day. As I have said hundreds of times, not only can betting systems not beat games like craps, they can’t even dent the house edge.
If the player bets $5 on the field and 5, and $6 on the 6 and 8, then he will have a net win of $2 on the 5, 6, and 8, $10 on the 2, $15 on the 12, and $5 on the other field numbers, assuming that the 12 pays 3 to 1 on the field. The player will lose $22 on a 7. On a per roll basis, the player can expect to lose 25 cents compared to $22 in bets, for a house edge of 1.136%.
This begs the question, why is this lower than the individual house edge of each bet made? It’s not. The reason it seems that way is the result of comparing apples to oranges. The house edge of place bets is usually expressed as the expected loss per bet resolved. Looking at the individual bets on a per-roll basis, the house edge on the 5 is 1.11%, and on the 6 and 8 is 0.46%, according to my craps appendix 2. Comparing apples to apples, the house edge is a weighted average of the house edge on the field, 5, 6, and 8, on a per-roll basis, or (5/22)×2.778% + (5/22)×1.111% + (6/22)×0.463% + (6/22)×0.463% = 1.136%.
For the benefit of other readers, the 5-Count is a method of slow-playing craps, as discussed in ’Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution’ by Frank Scoblete and Dominator. As the book states, it is a way of betting nothing on some rolls, reducing your expected loss on random shooters, while still getting the full comp value of table time.
The way the 5-Count works is you start counting rolls as soon as a new shooter throws any point number. When you get to five rolls after you start counting, the shooter is deemed worthy, and you start betting. However, you if the 5th roll is not a point number, it doesn’t count.
The book says you will only be betting 43% of the time, which I agree with. It is common for craps players to not bet, bet small, or bet the don’t pass on new shooters, as a way to qualify him. Once a shooter has made a point, or thrown lots of point numbers, the other players will gain confidence in him, and start betting with him. So, this kind of strategy seems natural. When casinos rate your average bet, they don’t lower the average for betting nothing some of the time. However, sometimes they will dock your time, especially if you are betting big.
An alternative strategy is to wait until the shooter makes a point. Under this strategy you will only be betting 40.6% of the time, less than the 43.5% with the 5-Count.
Yes! I’ve said many times that betting systems not only can’t beat a house edge game, they can’t even dent it. That includes denting it in the house’s favor. In other words, even if he tried to lose, he still only gives up 0.18% over the long-run, under your assumptions. Over a shorter time, he probably could do this, but not over 'years.' Some might argue that to deliberately lose, the player should do an anti-Martingale, where the player kept pressing his bets until he lost. However, a problem there is that a winning player will eventually reach the table maximum, which is rather low in craps. It just goes to show how futile betting systems are.
Testing the notion that “precision shooters” can gain an edge at the craps tables
By Frank Scoblete
So is there a way to truly test whether someone has the ability to throw the dice in a way that changes the odds of a craps game to give them the edge? The simple answer is “yes.”
The concept of dice control at the craps tables—also known as precision shooting or rhythmic rolling—is perhaps the game’s most controversial topic. Can a shooter actually change the odds of a craps game with his throwing technique?
This practice was introduced to the modern casino world by the late, legendary Captain from Atlantic City, who believed that certain shooters, the special few he called “rhythmic rollers,” could change the nature of the game from random to controlled. When I met him in the late 1980s, he had developed a complete concept of a controlled shot’s nature.
The controlled shooters he was interested in set the dice a certain way (please note: simply setting the dice is not dice control), gripped the dice a certain way, and threw the dice in a soft arc with backspin. He felt these shooters changed the odds of the game to favor the players on certain bets. This would classify them as “advantage players”—similar to card counters at the blackjack tables—because they possess an advantage over the house.
While the Captain was a superb shooter, perhaps the greatest controlled shooter I ever saw was a woman known as “The Arm.” I was fortunate to play alongside both of them for over a decade.
Still, many traditional gambling writers, players and casino executives claim there is no such thing as a controlled shooter. Indeed, when Golden Touch shooters (www.goldentouchcraps.com) come to a table, some box personnel and/or floor people will make it a point to tell such shooters, “You know, that thing (or dice control) doesn’t work. You can’t win that way.”
This is in itself a strange statement, since you will never hear casino personnel say such things to random rollers; those who throw, wing, loft, fling, heave or bounce the dice down the table. Obviously, random rollers have no edge over the house—so why don’t the casino folks tell these shooters that what they are doing will not work?
So is there a way to truly test whether someone has the ability to throw the dice in a way that changes the odds of a craps game to give them the edge? The simple answer is “yes.”
Every single player who has read one of my books on dice control and/or taken one of the Golden Touch dice control classes knows that incontrovertible proof for dice control exists.
There are two methods by which dice controllers (or would-be dice controllers) can prove whether they have an actual edge over the house. The first method is to keep a record of one’s SRR, which is the shooter’s seven-to-rolls ratio. In a random game of craps the SRR is 1:6; that is, over many decisions, the seven will come up once every six rolls on average.
Over many rolls, if the shooter has an SRR over 1:6, he or she can be confident that they have control. The better the SRR, the more control. Shooters will throw 10 to 20 thousand rolls before they can say with confidence that they are indeed changing the nature of the game. Some of these elite shooters actually have regulation craps tables in their homes, which they practice on.
So what kind of SRR would a student need, as a minimum, to have an edge? If you have an SRR of 1:6.3, you can overcome the house edge on certain bets. Shooters without axis-control must use the Hardways set, where the dice show hardways all around – 2:2, 3:3, 4:4 and 5:5, with the 1 and 6 being on the left and right sides, respectively.
The second method for proving you have dice control skill is to pass the SmartCraps tests. SmartCraps is a software program that analyzes throws to determine if the shooter has axis control. The SRR does not in and of itself measure axis control; in short, you do not need axis control to have an edge at the game. When you use the Hardways set, if the 1 or 6 spot shows, that is an off-axis result for that die—but one such result cannot end in a seven out.
With axis control you are shooting for certain specific numbers. For example, the use of the 3V dice set looks to hit sixes and eights. A shooter could have an SRR of 1:6, but if this shooter is hitting an inordinate percentage of sixes and/or eights despite such a low SRR, he indeed has control. My new book Cutting Edge Craps: Advanced Strategies for Serious Players explores axis control in depth—who has it, and what to do when you do have it.
The passing of either or both of these tests is flat-out verification that the shooter does have the ability to change the game. You can’t fool yourself into thinking you control the dice when your SRR shows you aren’t, or when your SmartCraps tests show you don’t have enough axis control to use sets other than the Hardway set, even if your SRR is decent.
Our Golden Touch students can test themselves. Again, you can’t con the SRR or the SmartCraps tests. Dice control is firmly proven by the players who are passing these criteria. There’s no nonsense here. You think you can control the dice? Great—test yourself and see if it’s true.
The SRR and SmartCraps tests are the be-all and end-all of proof. As for the critics, let them carp and moan and try to sell their ideas to the public. The casinos realize that this works. That’s why they tell you it doesn’t work. Thankfully, so many dice setters (as opposed to controlled shooters) exist that the casinos find it hard to see who does and who doesn’t actually have the skill to beat them.
Can dice control be proven? Certainly. In the next issue of Casino Player, I’ll discuss the real nature of the back wall pyramids and how dice really react when they bounce on the table.
Frank Scoblete’s newest books are Slots Conquest: How to Beat the Slot Machines, whichfeatures advantage-play slots; Casino Craps: Shoot to Win, which comes with a DVD showing controlled throws. Cutting Edge Craps: Advanced Strategies for Serious Players and Beat Blackjack Now are available from Amazon.com, at your favorite bookstore, or by mail order by calling 1-866-SET-DICE. You can also call that number for a free brochure.