Trump Senate Impeachment Odds

• Vegas Odds Impeachment Trump Today
• Impeachment Trial Odds In The Senate
• Latest Odds On Trump Impeachment
• Current Odds On Trump Impeachment
• Odds On Trump Impeachment Removal
• Trump Impeachment Odds In Senate
• Trump Senate Impeachment Odds Chart

What are the chances of US President Donald Trump being removed from office if the Democrats do retake the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections, or at least make significant gains?

• Early removal from office via whatever means is still rated unlikely – a 20% chance at odds of 5.0. To remove Trump via impeachment would require two-thirds of Senators convicting him after a trial in the Senate.
• Then the probability of impeachment according to these calculations is 83%. If p = 3%, this jumps to 90%; if p = 5% then there is a 95% chance that Trump becomes the third impeached president after.

These days, you can bet on anything in politics, including which White House Cabinet member might be next to leave and how many Saudi Arabia tweets Trump will send this week.

Generated probability that Trump will be impeached in Senate convicted in Senate impeachment trial. Trump will be impeached in Senate 0%. Trump will win the election 10%. Kamala Harris will win 20%. UPGRADE to ODDS.WATCH PRO and Receive Email Alerts.

In politics, as in everything else, one should follow the money. If the betting markets give good odds, surely that means it is likely to happen, right?

Not quite. Suppose a fictitious horse, Tempestuous Daniels (named after Stormy Daniels, naturally), is running in the Melbourne Cup with odds of $3, and that some billionaire puts $10 million on her to win.

Bookmakers do not want any further bets on the horse, otherwise, if she were to win, they’d go bankrupt. So, they’ll shorten the odds to $1.01 to discourage further bets. The horse is now surely the favourite, but not due to its intrinsic chances of winning.

Odds of impeachment in the House are quite good

So, what of impeachment? The US Constitution allows for the impeachment of a president for “treason, bribery or other high crimes and misdemeanours.” The House of Representatives can vote with a simple majority to impeach a president. The impeached leader is then tried in the Senate. If two-thirds of the Senate find him or her guilty, the president is removed from office.

There are 435 voting members of the House, and 100 Senators. This means that a successful impeachment needs 218 votes in the House and a successful removal needs 67 votes in the Senate. Currently, the Republicans control both chambers, making impeachment of Trump extremely unlikely.

Read more: Why Trump hasn't been impeached – and likely won't be

But will the chances of impeachment change if the Democrats retake the House after the November midterm elections? The US political website FiveThirtyEight.com publishes daily forecasts of all the races and the probability of each party winning control of the House and Senate.

For example, the site predicts the Democrats have an 83.6% chance of retaking the House, while the Republicans have a 16.4% chance of retaining control (as of time of publishing). There’s a 1.7% chance the Republicans will maintain a majority of one with 218 seats; a 1.7% chance they will retain a 219-216 majority; a 1.6% chance of 220-215, and so forth.

To make the following analysis easier, we shall assume that all Democrats will always vote to impeach (in the House) and vote for guilty (in the Senate). Given this assumption, we can boil the analysis down to one number: the odds of any given Republican crossing the floor (or crossing the aisle, as they say in America) and voting against Trump.

We’ll call this probability “p”. We’ll also make the assumption that the decision of any given Republican to cross floor does not affect the decision of any other Republican to cross the floor. That is, we make the assumption that the probabilities of crossing the floor are independent.

To explain the concept of independence, consider the following. The odds of rolling a five on a standard die are 1-in-6; the odds of drawing a diamond from a standard pack of cards are 1-in-4. The die has nothing to do with the cards. Therefore, these probabilities are independent of one another.

What, then, are the odds of rolling a five and then drawing a diamond? Only one-sixth of the time do we roll a five, and only one-quarter of the time do we draw a diamond. Therefore, the odds of doing both are 1-in-24.

Read more: Why Trump hasn't been impeached – and likely won't be

Let’s return to the election predictions. Let’s also assume the Republicans retain a slim 218-217 majority in the House. We don’t care whether it is Peter who crosses the floor, or Mabel, or John. What we want is the number of ways of choosing one Republican to cross the floor, and all 217 others to stay loyal. There are 218 such ways for this to happen.

Doing the calculations, Fred will cross the floor with probability p. Other Republicans will stay loyal with probability 1-p. Therefore, the odds of Fred crossing the floor and all other Republicans staying loyal is p(1-p)…(1-p), with 217 (1-p)s in the product.

Similarly, we can figure out the odds of two (or more) Republicans crossing the floor. We need to figure out how many ways we can choose two “p's (to cross the floor) and 216 (1-p)s (to stay loyal). This brings us to an area of mathematics known as combinatorics.

Crunching the numbers, we arrive at a long expression that gives us the odds of a Trump impeachment where the only variable is p.

Suppose there was even just a 1% chance of a Republican crossing the floor, that is, that p = 1%. Then the probability of impeachment according to these calculations is 83%. If p = 3%, this jumps to 90%; if p = 5% then there is a 95% chance that Trump becomes the third impeached president after Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton.

Therefore, even if there is only a small chance of any given Republican crossing the floor, there is a very high chance of impeachment.

But… odds in the Senate are far longer

What, though, about a guilty verdict in the Senate? Remember, you need 67 senators to vote in favour of removing a president from office.

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, the Republicans currently have a 81% chance of retaining control of the Senate. The Democrats face very long odds to get even close to the 67 senators needed to impeach – they have a 0.1% chance to reach even 56 seats. Even then, they would need 11 Republicans to cross the floor – a very tall order.

This makes a guilty verdict almost impossible to achieve.

For Trump to be removed, he needs to be impeached by the House and then found guilty by the Senate. Assume these events occurring independently of one another.

If the odds of any given Republican (in either the House or Senate) defecting were 1-in-4, there would only be a 7% chance of Trump’s removal. Even if this rose to a staggeringly unbelievable 1-in-3 – meaning one-third of Republicans would try to remove their own President – the odds of removal are still not quite even money.

This article is based on a talk given in the G.S. Watson Annual Lecture at La Trobe University, Bendigo.

When it comes to political betting, it's more than just who wins and who loses elections. Wagers can be made on political prop bets like how many times a candidate will say a specific word, how active Twitter might be during a debate, whether the current President will be impeached, and so on.

As former President Donald Trump faced impeachment twice (Dec. 2019-Feb. 2020, Jan. 2021), many online sportsbooks like what they see with this new trend, especially from a betting perspective. That's why many of the top books – having moved on from Trump impeachment odds – are now embracing Joe Biden impeachment odds.

Since impeachment can be a long process with multiple steps, bettors have plenty of chances to capitalize monetarily on the proceedings whenever they arise. And since such proceedings are primed to arise many more times in the future, you can expect impeachment odds to be a semi-regular thing going forward. Decorum, once lost, is gone forever, as the poet says.

Impeachment probabilities can also affect other prop bets and betting lines, as they did for the odds for which party would control the White House after the 2020 election or whether or not Republicans would remain in control.

Is betting on Presidential Vegas impeachment odds legal?

There are no federal laws that make it a crime to place bets on a Presidential impeachment. As long as the wagers are made through licensed offshore sites operating legitimately within the industry, the bets are legal. Bettors can also put money on Presidential resignation odds, Donald Trump's 2024 election odds, candidate matchup odds, and a variety of other related political prop bets.

Unfortunately, since political betting is such a new field, no domestic sportsbooks offer action on impeachments, even in Vegas. However, Vegas oddsmakers still set impeachment lines as advertising-friendly hypotheticals to get bettors interested in gambling, though only overseas books can post real-money impeachment odds and prop bets for the ordeal.

It should be noted that Washington and Connecticut prohibit all forms of online gambling, though these laws are historically unenforced (so you are free to sign up and wager at your own risk).

Best Online Sportsbooks For Betting On Biden Impeachment

How To Bet On Presidential Impeachment Odds

Betting on impeachment is no different than betting on any other line of Vegas election odds. Domestically, gamblers can't wager at any in-state books, as players are required to do so at offshore sportsbooks. Fortunately, it's a simple process to get started.

To bet on impeachment, an account must first be made at your preferred book, then verified and funded to be used. This takes only a few minutes, especially if you deposit using Bitcoin or credit/debit. Once your account is ready, impeachment betting odds can usually be found under the “Political” tab at online books. Impeachment odds might also be listed in the “Specials” section or 'Entertainment' section of your betting site of choice. After finding these bets, placing a real-money wager is just a couple of clicks or taps away.

Vegas Odds Impeachment Trump Today

Each of the online sportsbooks listed on this page features a number of security protocols to ensure player safety. Not only does every book here employ SSL/TLS data encryption, 24/7 customer support, and cryptocurrency options to create a safe environment for all bettors, each one is licensed to guarantee its legality.

Trump Impeachment 2: Senate Conviction Odds

Trump has already been convicted for the second time, so Trump impeachment odds are now off the betting boards. However, those have been replaced by Trump Senate conviction odds, as the trial now moves into the upper chamber.

However, in order to convict Trump and prevent him from ever running for President again, the Democrats will need to find a whopping 17 GOP turncoats. That seems unlikely. For this reason, conviction is probably DOA, just like last time.

As a result, the best Vegas election betting sites instead have Senate odds on exactly how many members of the upper chamber will vote to convict Trump. Remember, since the Senate is split 50-50 and the Democrats are expected to be unanimous in their animus, this is really a bet on how many Republican Senators will risk the ire of their constituents and side with the left. The following odds are from Bovada:

How many US Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement charges?

• 55 Or 56 +180
• 53 Or 54 +210
• 51 Or 52 +800
• 57 Or 58 +800
• 50 Or Fewer +1600
• 67 Or More +1600
• 59 Or 60 +2000
• 61 Or 62 +5000
• 63 Or 64 +10000
• 65 Or 66 +10000

What are Biden's impeachment odds?

Each sportsbook sets its own odds, so the chances that Biden is impeached may differ between oddsmakers. The following is a list of current impeachment odds from multiple different books:

Will Joe Biden leave office via impeachment?

• No -2000
• Yes +700

Will Joe Biden complete his first term as US President?

• Yes -165
• No +125

What year will Kamala Harris become US President?

• 2021 +200
• 2023 +350
• 2024 +350
• 2025 +350
• 2022 +400

Will Joe Biden leave office via impeachment?

• No -2000
• Yes +700

Will Joe Biden complete his first term as US President?

• Yes -165
• No +125

What year will Kamala Harris become US President?

• 2021 +200
• 2023 +350
• 2024 +350
• 2025 +350
• 2022 +400

Joe Biden Impeachment 2021

As you can see, some Vegas election sportsbooks are offering odds on Biden impeachment. While these lines are popular, we advise taking the 'No.' It's true that Biden clearly isn't mentally or physically fit enough to hold the office of the President for long, but that's no crime.

Further, it is not at all likely that 'Big Guy' Biden and son Hunter will be investigated or prosecuted for their involvement in the Ukrainian Burisma energy scandal, given that those details were already well known when the DNC chose Biden as its candidate in 2020.

Biden will likely step down at some point, but he won't be impeached or removed via the 25th Amendment. The party – and its complicit mainstream media arm – will have to present the forthcoming Biden resignation as voluntary and dignified.

Donald Trump Impeachment 2021

As we suspected, Trump – win or lose – was impeached again. While Trump impeachment news hit a fever pitch following the protests in Washington DC on January 6, 2021, the real reason the left impeached him and wishes for the Senate to convict the former President is so he cannot run again in 2024. Trump is, after all, the current betting favorite to win the GOP nomination in the next election.

All that said, though Trump impeachment part two seems like a pipe dream for conviction in the Senate, you can find betting odds on whether or not the Senate will find him guilty of the phony charges brought against him for 'inciting riot' and other such rot. You can also bet on political props like the exact number of Senators to vote for conviction.

Right now, though the Trump impeachment vote was successful in the House, it probably stops there. In the Senate, impeachment of Donald Trump will likely be dismissed, with Trump acquitted for a second time.

Why is Trump being impeached in 2021?

The mainstream media falsely asserted that then-President Trump 'incited violence' by calling for a peaceful, lawful, constitutionally protected protest on Capitol Hill for the January 6 validation of the electoral college votes for the 2020 November general.

There was some limited violence at the 500,000-person protest, and though Trump disavowed such actions, the motive was to paint him as the chief culprit so he would not be able to run for public office again.

The 2021 Trump impeachment trial is all about the desperation of the left, and it's an attempt to remove 'Trumpism' (i.e. national populism) from the public discourse. It will not work, as every Trump impeachment poll shows the move to be highly unpopular with a public that is not interested in further division and political rhetoric between the two prominent parties.

At the very least, we should at least get some decent Trump impeachment memes out of the whole thing.

What caused the 2019 impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump?

While Robert Mueller’s investigation into Trump’s alleged collusion with Russia during the 2016 election, the subsequent Mueller Report, and his testimony all played a role in the eventual impeachment inquiry, the pivotal moment was the so-called Ukrainian scandal.

Trump was alleged to have withheld military funding from the Ukraine unless the foreign government provided 'dirt' on Joe Biden and Hunter Biden activities with the now-defunct Burisma energy company. No such deal was proposed in reality, and Trump was eventually acquitted by the US Senate.

What happened with the Trump Ukraine scandal?

Impeachment Trial Odds In The Senate

On July 25, 2019, Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky shared a phone call to discuss various issues, including Joe Biden's and Hunter Biden's involvement in the firing of a Ukrainian prosecutor investigating Burisma Holdings Limited, the discredited Ukrainian petrochemical company for which Hunter Biden sat on the board.

According to a White House 'whistleblower' complaint, Trump threatened to withhold military aid from Ukraine unless the country investigated the Biden family and their dealings in Ukraine. The transcript of the call, released by Trump, did not demonstrate this.

However, the Democrats in the US House quickly changed the narrative to implied rather than explicit statements of record. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a formal impeachment inquiry on September 24.

Aside from the original 'whistleblower,' more whistleblowers were ready to come forward, according to their legal teams. This did not happen, and Trump sailed through impeachment without any negative impact to his polling numbers or approval ratings.

Who drove the impeachment against Trump in 2019?

Officially, the inquiry was launched by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, so she was one of the biggest driving forces behind the proceedings. It should be noted, however, that Pelosi did not favor an impeachment inquiry prior to the 'whistleblower’s' complaint.

The following list features some of the most prominent impeachment supporters:

• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi
• Rashida Tlaib (member of “The Squad” and target of Trump criticisms)
• Democratic candidate Tom Seyer (founder of Need to Impeach)
• Elizabeth Warren (favored impeachment prior to Ukraine scandal)
• Tulsi Gabbard (did not favor impeachment prior to Ukrainian scandal, and did not vote to impeach Trump)
• Justin Amash (former Republican, now the only Independent in the House of Representatives)
• Al Green (called for impeachment in 2017)
• Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (Republican)

2019-2020 Trump Impeachment And Senate Trial Outcome

Impeachment (House Resolution 755)

On December 18, 2019, Donald J. Trump was formally impeached by US House of Representatives on two broad and unspecific charges: Abuse of Power and Obstruction of Congress.

• Article I: Abuse of Power
  • Democrats: 229 for, 2 against, 1 present, 1 not voting
  • Republicans: 0 for, 195 against, 2 not voting
  • Independents: 1 for, 0 against
• Article II: Obstruction of Congress
  • Democrats: 228 for, 3 against, 1 present, 1 not voting
  • Republicans: 0 for, 195 against, 2 not voting
  • Independents: 1 for, 0 against

Senate Trial Results

On February 5, 2020, Trump was acquitted easily on both counts, with the Democrats failing to come remotely close to the 67-vote threshold in the Senate needed to convict.

• Article I: Abuse of Power
  • Democrats: 45 for, 0 against
  • Republicans: 1 for, 52 against
  • Independents: 2 for, 0 against
• Article II: Obstruction of Congress
  • Democrats: 45 for, 0 against
  • Republicans: 0 for, 53 against
  • Independents: 2 for, 0 against

Mitt Romney, the Utah Republican from Massachusetts and former 2016 Trump GOP rival, voted to convict the President on Abuse of Power charges. Romney is the only person in history to vote against a member of his same party in an impeachment trial. It remains to be seen how this will affect his future in UT politics.

How does impeachment work?

Impeachment proceedings include a couple of key steps that must be followed by Congress to legally remove a president.

• First, if the House Judiciary Committee investigation’s findings are sufficient, they recommend articles of impeachment to the House.
• Next, the House holds a vote on the article of impeachment. If the majority of the House votes in favor of impeachment, the President is impeached but not immediately removed from office.
• Following impeachment, the Senate holds a trial based on the articles of impeachment. If two-thirds of the Senate votes to convict the president (i.e. at least 67 out of 100 Senators), then he is removed from office.

What other presidents have been impeached?

Before Trump, only two former presidents have ever been impeached, although a third narrowly avoided impeachment by resigning.

Andrew Johnson was impeached in 1868 primarily due to his violation do the Tenure of Office Act. After his impeachment, Johnson was cleared of all charges during his trial and remained in office.

In 1998, Bill Clinton was charged with perjury and obstruction of justice. Like Johnson, Clinton was acquitted and remained in office.

In December 2019, Donald Trump was impeached, but after a six week process, the Senate found him not guilty and he was acquitted. In Trump's case, impeachment had a positive effect on both his polling and re-election odds. Trump was impeached for a second time in January 2021, making him the first US President to be impeached twice.

Latest Odds On Trump Impeachment

Impeachment proceedings were also brought against Richard Nixon related to his involvement in the Watergate Scandal, but he stepped down as president in 1974 before he could be convicted of obstruction of justice, abuse of power, and contempt of Congress.

Presidential Impeachment FAQs

The volatility of political odds is unpredictable, especially with something as uncommon as presidential impeachment. Depending on Trump’s actions or information that may be discovered through any investigation, the odds could flip continuously until the House vote is held.

Current Odds On Trump Impeachment

Impeachments have no set time. However, Clinton’s impeachment lasted five months and with the available technology in 2019, Trump’s impeachment proceedings took only six weeks, even after the House failed to forward the articles to the Senate for a full month after the vote. As for the acceptance of bets, Vegas sportsbooks can't actually take your money on impeachment odds, which means you'll have to stick with offshore political betting sites.

Odds On Trump Impeachment Removal

Yes, he was!

This was a common political prop ever since Trump was acquitted by the Senate in early 2020. However, following the 'insurrection' on Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021 (which was far more peaceful than the 'mostly peaceful protests' that ravaged American cities throughout 2020), Trump has been accused of inciting violence. This, despite his calls for peaceful protests in accordance with the law.

Trump Impeachment Odds In Senate

Nevertheless, with the Democrats controlling both houses of Congress come January 21, 2021, the party has been emboldened to again impeach the now former President, with a Senate conviction thereby preventing him from being the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024.

Trump Senate Impeachment Odds Chart

As for whether or not Trump's second impeachment will bear fruit for the Democrats, that seems like a longshot. Conviction is not likely in the upper chamber, as it requires 67 votes in the Senate, which is now split 50-50 along party lines.