Can You Make A Living Gambling On Sports

Posted : admin On 4/7/2022

Anyone who has had a casual bet on the weekend watching their favorite sports team or even tried their hand at matched betting has thought, “I could totally do this full time”. But could you actually do it and make a living from it?

Can you making a living gambling in vegas? I think you can make a living off the tables and poker here, but I have my doubts about the table games. As far as sports betting goes, I cap. You only asked if there exist people who made a living off of sports betting, not if there are a lot of them. And the answer to that is 'yes'. Bloomberg's profile of Bill Benter tells one rather interesting story of one who made his fortune writing algorithms that analyze horse-betting. The only sound was the hum of a dozen computers.

It is possible to make a living off sports betting. This can be done via one of, or a combination of, matched betting, arbitrage betting, value betting, sports trading, or providing tipster services. In order to make a living from sports betting you will need discipline and to commit time and effort into honing your craft.

The amount you consider to be enough money to live off will depend on a lot of factors. For example, if you are living in a major city such as London, the cost of living is substantially higher than more rural locations. In the examples below, I will try and quantify how much money you could typically expect to make from each of the methods.

However, the figures presented below for expected earnings are meant to provide an indication of the potential for each type of betting. I have tried to align the advised bankroll with the expected earnings to provide a realistic estimate of what it would take to make a living from each method. Of course, you can get started with much less.

It is important to note though, that simply doubling your bankroll will not mean that your expected earnings will also double. Your results will vary depending on the amount of time you invest, variance and your level of skill/knowledge.

Let’s get into it.

Matched Betting

Expected Earnings: £100 to £500 per week

Advised Bankroll: £1,000 pounds

Starting with the lowest earner first, let’s talk about match betting. Match betting involves taking advantage of bookmaker promotional offers such as bonus bets, extra-place payouts and odds boosts. In general, match betting is considered an excellent starting point for anyone who is looking to start making a living from sports betting.

Match betting is considered low risk than other forms of betting such as value betting and sports trading because it often involves placing a back bet which is offset by a lay bet. This reduces the bettor’s exposure as the lay bet hedges the back bet.

Match betting is an excellent starting point because the stakes involved are generally quite small. Obviously though, with lower stakes and a lower risk profile, match betting offers lower potential returns then some of the other methods we will cover later.

Some websites will claim that match betting is a risk-free form of betting. However, this is simply untrue. All betting involves some form of risk. As a beginner, it is quite easy to put a back bet on one match and accidentally put the wrong lay bet on. This operational risk or execution risk is an inherent in almost all forms of betting.

One of the biggest limitations with match betting, in terms of potential earnings, is the availability of bonuses and promotions to take advantage of. Once you have taken advantage of the sign up offers, you are then reliant on weekly “bet-club” offers or ad hoc promotional from bookmakers.

Keeping track of promotional offers between bookmakers in the UK (over 100 at the time of writing) can be quite a logistical and administrative piece of work. That is why many matched bettors use software such as OddsMonkey. This software provides a calendar of regular weekly bonus bets and ad hoc bonuses that can be taken advantage of.

Can You Make A Living Gambling On Sports

The other major limitation of matched betting is that your accounts often get restricted or gubbed. This means that your accounts will no longer be eligible for promotional offers and bonus bets. This reduces the longevity of the earning potential associated with match betting.

Some people claim to be able to keep all their accounts unrestricted for years. However, in my experience, this is simply not true. My betting accounts have survived anywhere from a few days up to about two years without being restricted from match betting.

As accounts get gubbed, a matched bettor will continue to work through all the bookmakers available to them until they have no bonuses or promotions available to them. From there, a punter can try to make a living from sports betting by progressing to arbitrage betting.

Arbitrage Betting

Expected Earnings: £500 to £1,000 per week

Advised Bankroll: £5,000

Arbitrage betting involves betting on all outcomes for a particular betting market. By betting on the outcomes with different bookmakers it is possible to generate a profit no matter the outcome of the match. Arbitrage betting opportunities arise because different bookmakers set the odds for outcomes independently of each other.

Arbitrage betting is generally done on markets where there only two outcomes. This allows for ease and speed of execution in placing the bets. Focusing on two outcome markets also makes calculating bet sizes simpler.

Much like match betting, there are risks inherent to arbitrage betting as well. The operational risk or execution risk still exists by which I mean you could place an incorrect bet thus generating a loss for yourself. But there is also one other risk that you need to be aware of when it comes to arbitrage betting. Bookmakers have the right to cancel your bets.

When you sign up for a bookmaker you agree to the terms of service which includes a clause allowing them to terminate your bet for a myriad of reasons. One of those reasons is if the bookmaker has made an error in pricing. If you find an arbitrage opportunity that seems too good to be true, that is probably because it is.

When a bookmaker cancels your bet, your initial stake is returned. However, because you are arbitrage betting, you have a second bet on the market which is now naked or unhedged. If a bookmaker cancels your bet, your best course of action is to make sure you cover your exposed position with another bet.

This will likely result in a loss for you. However, your loss will be significantly reduced compared to what could eventuate if you leave your bet exposed and it loses.

The fundamental elements of arbitrage betting require you to be able to identify opportunities, calculate steak sizing and place the bets in a timely manner. Doing this without the assistance of software is virtually impossible. Markets move so quickly that it is not even worth trying to do this without software.

The best arbitrage betting software scans over 100 bookmaker websites for odds across various events and markets and matches them together for you. The leading software providers are RebelBetting, BetBurger and BetOnValue.

The arbitrage betting software will help you identify arbitrage bets, but you are still required to manually place both sides of your bets. It is possible to write your own software that could then also automatically place the bets for you. The desktop software by RebelBetting is a good middle ground as the software will load the bet into your bet slip for you.

Making a living of arbitrage betting requires a significant time investment because the profit margins are so slim. Profit margins between 1% and 5% are quite common. The larger bankroll you start with and the more bookmakers you can spread that money around with, the more likely you are to be able to place higher profit margin bets.

In order to make a living from arbitrage sports betting you will need to place a high volume of bets. For example, if you can place bets with a 5% profit margin you would make £50 profit for every £1000 staked.

This does not explicitly mean that you need £1000 in your bankroll to make £50 pounds. This is where the concept of turnover or bankroll churn comes into play. If you start with a bankroll of £500, you will need to turn it over twice to complete £1000 worth of bets.

This could involve placing ten sets of £50 bets on a Saturday and then again on a Sunday. If you can place those bets every single day of the week, you can then start to scale your arbitrage betting. Additionally, this is more effective as you start to increase your bet sizes.

It is very realistic to make what would be considered a living in any location from arbitrage betting. It is important to know though, this does not come without some serious time investment. In order to place the volume of bets you would need to generate what could be considered a living, you would need to be betting close to 40 hours a week or a full-time job.

Bookmakers closely monitor accounts which they suspect of arbitrage betting. This is because bookmakers know that arbitrage bettors are taking advantage of their pricing inefficiencies. Risk management departments of bookmakers oversee this account monitoring.

Bookmakers will reduce the likelihood that they will take a loss on your account by restricting your stake sizes once your account has been identified or flagged as arbitraging. Having the staking sizes on your betting accounts restricted greatly impacts your ability to make a living from arbitrage sports betting.

Not being able to place large bets and a lot of them will crush your earning capacity. For this reason, some people avoid arbitrage betting altogether and just progress from matched betting into value betting. However, while matched betting and arbitrage betting have similar risk profiles, with arbitrage betting just having more scalability, value betting has a vastly different risk profile.

Value betting is not for the risk averse.

Value Betting – Beating The Closing Line

Expected Earnings: -£2,000 to £2,000 per week

Advised Bankroll: £10,000

Can You Make A Living Gambling On Sports Club

Value betting with the aim of beating the closing line involves placing pre-match bets to beat the closing line at the start of the match. Intrinsically this betting method assumes that the closing line odds are an accurate representation of the true probability of that match outcome.

What this means in practice is that if a team starts a match with odds of 2.0 the natural expected probability of winning is then 50%. If you can place a bet at 2.02 then you were getting value for placing that bet. The value is the difference between the price at which you place your back bet (2.02) and the closing line (2.00), which in this case is 0.02.

To make this method work you need to be able to produce your own estimate for what the true closing line is or use a bookmaker as a proxy. There are hundreds of bookmakers around the world though, so which bookmaker has the correct closing line price?

Many value betting software providers use the closing lines provided by sharp bookmakers. One sharp bookmaker is preferred above all others, Pinnacle.

Pinnacle is a bookmaker that is renowned for its tight betting lines and high betting limits. What this means in practice is that Pinnacle makes its money from being right. They take a small margin from each bet and accept large volumes of bets at the prices they offer.

An army of data analysts, data scientists and statisticians are employed by Pinnacle to model sports and set odds. A common argument in support of Pinnacle being the best bookmaker to use as a baseline for closing odds is as follows: if their odds were not accurate with their low margin/high volume business model, they would already be bankrupt by now.

Identifying value bets can be done in two ways. The first is to build your own predictive model (see the next section for more details) which you could then benchmark against the closing odds of Pinnacle. This obviously requires extensive mathematical knowledge or an expertise in the sport and market you plan on betting on.

The second option is to use software which scans all the bookmaker’s websites and compares those odds back against the Pinnacle odds. The software then alerts you whenever a bookmaker’s odds are above Pinnacles Odds, meaning that a value bet exists. This software does not aim to predict outcomes, it merely identifies odds which are higher than those quoted by Pinnacle. It is a purely statistical approach.

Value betting is inherently high risk as betting on value outcomes does not guarantee any sort of result. You can place 10 or 20 or 30 bets with value but all those bets can potentially lose. This variance associated with value betting is exactly why it is not suited to somebody with a low risk tolerance.

The fundamental premise of value betting is that over a large enough sample size of bets, you should statistically come out ahead if you are consistently placing bets at higher odds than the true probability of the outcome. Value betting is not for the fainthearted though, as you can go through extended periods of losses. It requires mental fortitude to trust in your understanding of statistics to persevere through the variance.

Just like with matched betting and arbitrage betting, bookmakers are on the lookout for value bettors. If you are consistently placing bets with the bookmaker that are classified as +EV or positive expected value, then your account will likely be flagged, and your staking sizes eventually restricted. Even if your account is currently losing money, your account will be flagged.

This is because statistically, over time, you will eventually come out ahead. Bettors that consistently place value bets are knows as sharps and their bets are known as sharp money. Most bookmakers identify sharps to maintain their profitability and limit the damage sharps can do to their bottom line.

Although traditional (soft) bookmakers may limit your account, this does not mean that value betting ends for you. Betting exchanges, Asian bookmakers and betting brokers provide you with the opportunity to continue value betting even after your soft bookmaker accounts have been restricted.

That all being said, there is also a strong argument against the use of Pinnacle closing odds for the purposes of value betting. In smaller illiquid markets, the Pinnacle closing line may not be a good representation of the true probability of an outcome. Therefore, building your own predictive model can be a better alternative too using value betting software.

Value Betting – Predicting Winners

Expected Barnings: -£2,000 to £2,000 per week

Advised Bankroll: £10,000

Making a living from value betting can be done in a simplistic way, an overly complex way involving advanced statistics and modeling, or any variation in between. A simplistic approach could simply involve a gut feeling by analyzing historical performances, injuries, home field advantage and some basic statistics. The more advanced method will require large datasets and advanced computer skills to build models.

Predicting winners is the most difficult method of making a living from value betting. The method not only relies heavily on being able to consistently pick the winners of matches or events but also the ability to place bets on those outcomes at the right price, in essence, getting value.

All forms of predicting winners will require the use of data and statistics to some degree. The level of sophistication that your approach takes will determine the type of data you need as well as the programming or modelling skills required to interpret that data.

In its simplest form, historical data can be found online for free. However, more detailed historical datasets will often come at a premium price. Data is big business these days, and the cost of access to advance datasets and metrics may stop you in your tracks before you even start building a predictive model.

Building a predictive model involves taking a data set and performing some transformations on it. This could be multivariate analysis or data science techniques such as neural networking. At a minimum you will want to be using a spreadsheet program such as Excel but most likely something more advanced such as the statistical software, R.

Once you set up the model, back tested it for success, it is then time to start placing bets. Much like the other betting methods described above, soft bookmakers will likely restrict your accounts before too long. However, if your predictive model is good enough, there will be plenty of value betting opportunities on betting exchanges as well as sharp bookmakers.

Predicting your own winners from a model to make a living off sports betting is inherently a high-risk form of betting. Not only do you have to build the initial model, back test it, and execute the bets, but you also need to manage the predictive model. You need to continuously update the model to ensure it has latest data as well as run tests to ensure that it is still operating correctly.

Overtime a model may drift from its initial design. Let’s assume you have built a model to predict a particular season of football, say the 2020 season in the English Premier League. How does your model handle a player transfer or injury? Does your model need to be updated every time one of these events occurs?

The answers to these questions will determine how robust your model is and how often you need to update the model. If you fail to update your model and allow it to drift from its original design, it is highly likely you will start betting on unprofitable outcomes. Monitoring and quantifying this model drift is the most challenging component to predictive modelling.

Just like value betting against the closing line, variance can be your best friend or your worst nightmare. Long losing runs can be the death of even the best predictive model. Therefore, proper bankroll management is fundamental to being successful with your own predictive model.

Sports Trading

Expected Earnings: -£2,000 to £2,000 per week

Advised Bankroll: £10,000

Sports trading works much like trading foreign exchange or buying stocks as a day trader. It involves getting into a betting market and getting out before the conclusion of a match. This is where it differs from the methods above. You are not reliant on the result of the match.

All professional sports traders use software to assist them in their trading.

At its most basic level, this software makes the market more visually presentable to enable easy trading. There are several common approaches to trading:

  • Scalping – trading the volatility of the market, taking small gains as prices fluctuate
  • Steamers – placing a back bet and then laying off the position once it has moved significantly lower
  • Drifters – placing a lay bet and then backing the position once it has moved significantly higher

Can You Make A Living Gambling On Sports Teams

At its most sophisticated level, trading software also offers the capability to execute automated trading solutions. The trading software itself does not have proven strategies ready for execution. Is simply an automated software solution which can be configured to execute your own strategies. Sports traders can configure a strategy for selected events and let the software or bot handle the execution.

Now, anything involving automation carries significant risk with it. The last thing you want is your bot running haywire and burning through your bankroll on bets that it should not be placing. But even if the automated software works perfectly, there is always a strong chance that your strategy will not hold up over time.

Sports trading requires a lot of hard work and dedication to learn the craft. Many of the other methods just rely on software to spot opportunities and it is then on you to execute them. Sports trading requires a much deeper understanding of how markets function to be profitable.

The main advantage of sports trading is that it is all exchange based and therefore highly scalable. Betting exchanges involve two people betting against each other while the exchange itself makes money from taking a small margin from winning bets. The exchange is agnostic of the result and therefore will not be banning you for winning too much or placing to many +EV bets.

Setting Realistic Expectations

If you are serious about trying to make a living from sports betting important that you set realistic expectations for your learning and bankroll progression. You should treat sports betting like a full-time job and apply the same level of professionalism in your approach.

Making of living from sports betting is not a get rich quick scheme. Some of the methods described above have steep learning curves and require advanced technical skills. However, I am not trying to dissuade you, merely to set your expectations.

If you approach sports betting with a mind open to the challenges, risks, and opportunities, you will be in excellent position to make it work for you.

Tips for Being Successful

  • Be patient – it takes time to learn the methods described above as well as to build your bankroll.
  • Keep your emotions in check – This follows on nicely from being patient. If you try to rush things, get too excited after a win, or too angry at a loss or mistake, you will be prone to errors.
  • Bankroll management – make sure you separate your sports betting bankroll from the rest of your personal finances. This will ensure you are betting within your limits, as well as tracking your profits and losses accurately when they occur.
  • Treat it like a job – when you sit down to do some matched betting on a Saturday, make sure you do so at a desk, in a distraction free environment. Make sure that you are focused on what you are doing, and it will reduce the likelihood that you make mistakes.
  • Set goals – it is important to know what you are trying to achieve before starting your sports betting journey. Setting goals will help you keep focused during challenging times.

Can I Make a Living Betting Sports

Sports betting appeals to the smart bettor because it does not have a fixed house edge for the casinos. Betting sports for a living is a difficult but rewarding profession. Sports betting requires more skill than luck and is similar to live poker. You do not win every time but the skilled handicapper has a huge advantage over the recreational bettor. How sports betting can be a profitable investment involves an understanding of numbers, odds and sports.

Casino sports book operation

The casino sports books make their money on sports bets by collecting a commission on losing bets. This is called vigorish or vig for short. The most common odds are 11 to 10. This means if you want to win $100 you are risking $110. Place a bet on the Steelers, the sports book pays $210 (110 bet + 100 win) to a winner and keeps the $110 from losing bets.

Ideally, the Sports book would like to have the same amount of money wagered on the two teams playing. The winner gets $100 and the book collects $110 for the loser. This gives them a $10 profit. To accomplish this they assign a line or spread to make the contest equally attractive for both sides.

The point spread

Many people believe that the point spread is the predicted margin of victory one team will beat another team. This is not true but a spread number is needed to create wagering on both sides. The line is the handicapper’s prediction of what number will be required to split the wagering evenly on both teams. The line may change a little before game time. The sports books goal is to have the betting as evenly as possible.

If the public is swayed by sentiment to bet on a certain team then the odds makers need to adjust the line. Otherwise, the betting would be heavily lopsided. The general betting public reacts from the opinions of others. Smart bettors usually go against public sentiment when bettors over-value a certain team.

The sports books line is flawed if it does not attract the same action amount on both sides. The line is flawed when it does not compute to his predicted outcome of the game. A weaker team can actually become the favorite if public sentiment is with that team. When this happens the underdog presents a huge overlay for the seasoned handicapper tilting the odds in his favor. This is the contrarian principle and why many smart handicappers go against the general betting public.

A winning handicapper formulates his own opinions

A handicapper gets information from numerous sources and assigns weights and values to the wagering data. They will make their own power ranking and predict what the point spread should be without looking at the official line. They compare their predictions to the line to look for discrepancies. A large amount of data is available via the internet and other sources that the handicapper will find value bets. The use of computer programs can help when searching through the data.

Can You Make A Living Gambling On Sports

Why don’t more people win at sports betting. Like any other endeavor, it takes time, patience and practice to become successful. A person of average intelligence can become a winning handicapper if they have the desire. Based on the odds of -110 for a straight football or basketball bet a handicapper only need to be right 52.38 percent of the time to break even. However, many sports bettors cannot achieve that percentage of winning over the long run.

The chart below shows the break-even points for the various odds you will encounter when you make a money line bet. With higher odds, you have to have a higher winning percentage to break even. If you bet the underdogs you can have a lower win percentage and still make money.

Winning Percentages

Favorite Winning % Underdog Winning %
-110 52.38 +110 47.62
-115 53.49 +115 46.51
-120 54.55 +120 45.45
-125 55.56 +125 44.44
-130 56.52 +130 43.48
-135 57.45 +135 42.55
-140 58.33 +140 41.67
-145 59.18 +145 40.82
-150 60.00 +150 40.00
Betting favorites vs underdog

The best part about sports betting is that you always have the potential to make some money. You always have the ability to win, which not only feels great but puts a little extra padding into your wallet. This money making does not have to stop with just making a few extra bucks here and there.

A lot of people have trained themselves to become professional sports bettors. They have learned how to sift through stats with a keen eye for making correct picks. If you are good at predicting how games are decided, sports betting may be for you.

Lack of knowledge

Most sports bettors know just enough to make them dangerous. There is a great difference between being knowledgeable in the NFL and NFL betting. Being able to name the starting offensive line for the Cowboys is not likely to help a person win a bet.

Bettors are competing against other bettors who spend countless hours on handicapping, studying trends, injuries, and betting angles. If you fail to study the games, find somebody who does it for a living. A reputable sports service is skilled with sports betting professionals.

The sports betting industry is a major investment market for a limited number of successful traders. Alternative investment markets are a popular destination for investors with excess cash waiting for a decent return on investment. Most stocks are tied into the economic news with no parameters and direction.

Sports betting as an investment

It is becoming more difficult for even savvy investors to time the bottom. They have to become much more selective. The sports betting market has been around a long time with some controversy in the earlier years. However, there is a vibrant market in today’s highly competitive sports arena. The regulated Nevada sports books have the monopoly on legalized sports betting.

Can the amateur recreational bettors make money at these books — sometimes, but not in the long run. The professionals know how to look for the edge and only need to hit a minimum of 54% to make a modest return on investment. Making a 15% to 25% return for the year is very possible.

The good ones are few but the results are quick and opportunities exist everyday when soft betting lines are found and exploited. The betting lines are made to divide the betting public. They ideally want even betting on both sides. Their number does come close about 70% of the time.

The market scope

This happens a lot in all sports. They do provide a good service but their stats and computer models can only go so far. Investments in this area have a limited scale and cannot handle the millions or billions that pour into those other markets. But investors with up to one million can see a very nice return with the right professional.

Can You Make A Living Gambling On Sports Games

The Nevada Senate Bill 443 passed in 2015 has made it legal for individual investors to deposit money in a sports betting mutual fund investment entity group for the purpose of betting on sporting events. What are the requirements of sports betting mutual funds and what legal business is needed This sports betting mutual fund entity group is usually a Nevada corporation or LLC.

Established by gaming executives and sports bettors that manage the fund as a Nevada fiduciary agent. They can solicit funds from investors anywhere in the world. However, major restrictions do apply and is open to anyone that can go through the difficult approval process.

Investment structure

The entity or fund manager can take US investors and can charge fees or commissions for managing the fund. This includes placing the bets and where to allocate the funds for future investments. No investor can make a bet through the fund. It is a private hedge fund for sports betting. It is a different format than the current sports advisory business of selling picks to subscribers.

The application process is far from just providing standard information. Many applications have been rejected with about 10% being approved. The application process is an attempt to secure very personal and private information about the applicant. Any investor has to approve such scrutiny and invasion of privacy.

This would include a background check, source of funds invested and other customer data. In other words, a lot of red tape. If any prospective investors are not dismayed by the application process, there are other alarming issues to confront.

Gambling For A Living

Strict investment guidelines

CG Technologies is the only option for entity group formation and execution. They are the center of the application process to get things moving through the state. Their managed sports books accept and review investment groups detailed information. Other sports books could eventually join in the experiment but most are weary of the red tape. The additional regulations make things more difficult for other books to participate.

Can You Make A Living Gambling On Sports

The biggest issue for the actual betting decision selection is the absence of shopping for a better line. There are over a dozen different point spread lines in Nevada. Entity groups and their investors get access to only one line from CG Technology managed sports books. This restriction is the main problem of trying to find an edge when placing a bet.

Most experienced veterans in the industry have joked bill. They even dismissed it as a bad “beat bill” without a redeeming quality.

Can You Make A Living Gambling On Sports Network

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